Florida currently has more than 215,000 active listings, accounting for about 1 in 7 homes for sale nationwide. More than 10% of those homes are priced below what their owners paid. Florida’s pandemic-era housing boom has faded. It’s a sharp reversal from the bidding wars of a few years ago, when Florida’s population grew faster than that of any other state. A decade ago, Florida held the top spot with around 10% of the nation’s homes for sale. This year, that number reached nearly 18% in January and February but is currently at 14%, or about one of every seven homes for sale in the United States.
Source: Parcl Labs
My Take: We had ahuge influx of buyers in the pandemic era. Insurance and HOA fees have substantially increased in recent years coupled with the fact that Florida is a huge second home market. It should be no surprise we are experiencing a bit of a correction.
Mortgage Rates
Hover in the 6% Range
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% this week. Mortgage rates have not changed much recently, but economic growth and housing affordability continue to improve for homebuyers as they shop for homes in today’s market.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% as of July 9, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.43%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.72%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.82%, up from last week when it averaged 5.79%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.86%
For some Florida homeowners, the question is not just whether they can sell for a strong price. It is what that sale could mean at tax time. 17.9% of Florida owner-occupied households are currently estimated to have home sale gains above the federal capital gains exclusion thresholds. The current exclusion allows single filers to exclude up to $250,000 in capital gains from the sale of a primary residence, while married couples filing jointly can exclude up to $500,000, if they meet ownership and occupancy rules. Those limits have not changed since 1997, even as home values have climbed. The tax is based on gain, not sale price, and homeowners may be able to factor in the original purchase price, qualifying improvements and certain selling costs. Longtime home owners, empty nesters, single filers and homeowners who bought before major price gains may need to think about the issue.
NAR is backing the More Homes on the Market Act, which would double the current exclusion and index it to inflation.
Key Provisions of H.R. 1340 / S. 3332:
The legislation addresses the “lock-in” effect of the current tax code, which has remained unchanged since 1997. It proposes the following updates:
Higher Exclusions: Doubles the capital gains tax exclusion for home sales . Single filers could exclude up to $500,000 (up from $250,000), and married couples filing jointly could exclude up to $1,000,000 (up from $500,000).
Inflation Indexing: Implements an annual inflation adjustment to the exclusion amounts to ensure they keep pace with the cost of living.
My Take: The standard solution to America’s housing shortage is to build more houses. But in densely populated areas like Pinellas County, there is no land to build a substantial number of new homes to meet demand. If passed, this bill could unlock thousands of houses that are already built. Many existing long-time homeowners would like to downsize or make a move but are staying put because selling would trigger major tax consequences. Source: NAR
Mortgage Rates
Average 6.49%
The average 30-year fixed mortgage rate was little changed this week at 6.49%. Rates have remained relatively stable over the last six weeks. Meanwhile, purchase activity eased modestly and refinance activity has continued to pick up recently, reflecting borrowers’ responsiveness to current rate levels.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.49% as of June 25, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.47%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.77%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.84%, up from last week when it averaged 5.81%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.89%.
In Florida, the real estate industry accounted for a larger share of the state’s economy than it did anywhere else in the country last year.
More than a quarter of Florida’s gross domestic product came from the real estate industry in 2025. Real estate accounted for more than 25% of the state’s GDP last year, up from 24% the previous year.
The state’s real estate industry is worth $473.7 billion, and its GDP is around $1.8 trillion, the fourth-largest GDP of any U.S. state. Only California, Texas and New York have larger GDPs than Florida, and only California and Texas have larger real estate industries.
In Florida, a home purchase adds $133,560 to the economy and generates two jobs, the report says.
Source: NAR
Mortgage Rates
Average 6.52%
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased this week averaging 6.47%. Incoming data continues to reflect a resilient consumer, with retail sales improving and pending home sales strengthening, suggesting purchase demand is continuing to modestly improve.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.47% as of June 18, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 6.52%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.81%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.81%, down from last week when it averaged 5.84%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.96%.
According to a 2024 Redfin Analysis, median monthly property tax bills in Tampa have surged approximately 57% since 2019.
The Florida Legislature voted Tuesday to place a sweeping property tax measure on the November 2026 ballot that could dramatically reduce property tax bills for the majority of the state’s primary homeowners.
House Joint Resolution 1F (HJR 1F)—also known as “Save Our Homes from Excessive Property Taxes” passed 75–26 in the House and 30–9 in the Senate during a special session in Tallahassee. To take effect, the constitutional amendment must secure 60% voter support in November.
Under the proposal, Florida’s existing $50,000 homestead exemption would rise to $150,000 on January 1, 2027, and increase again to $250,000 on January 1, 2028.
Note: The larger exemption applies only to non-school taxes. School funding is still calculated on your home’s full value, exactly as it is today — so this amendment does not reduce the money schools receive from property tax.
For homeowners who already hold a homestead exemption as of December 31 2026, the expanded benefits would apply automatically. No new filing is required beyond the standard county property appraiser application already on record.
People who establish a new homestead after 2027 must hold Florida residency for five years before the full expanded exemption applies to them.
For investors and 2nd home owners the measure also lowers the annual assessment cap on non-homestead properties, including investment homes and commercial real estate, from 10% to 5%.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.52% this week. Stronger employment momentum has helped existing home sales reach a five-month high. Importantly, homebuyers are looking past the short-term rate fluctuations and actively entering the market, signaling renewed confidence in homeownership opportunities.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.52% as of June 11, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.48%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.84%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.84%, up from last week when it averaged 5.79%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.97%.
he Army Corps of Engineers and Pinellas County signed an agreement Friday that ended an 11-year standoff over beach renourishment.
The agreement means the Army Corps of Engineers will now go back to paying for 65% of beach renourishment projects. This past February, a $125 million beach renourishment project was completed and Pinellas County was forced to pay for it on its own for the first time. Fortunately the Army Corps of Engineers decided to change its strict stance on having homeowners sign perpetual easements. Homeowners will now be asked to sign temporary easements, which are only in effect during the project period. Easements will be valid during construction only. It includes no public access and use, and is only for the placement of sand. During the last project, about 20% of beachfront homeowners refused to sign the perpetual easements. The agreement between the county and corps will save Pinellas County hundreds of millions of dollars over the next couple of decades.
Source: PINELLAS COUNTY
My Take: Hopefully these changes will motivate beachfront owners to agree to the temporary easements. It seems like a reasonable solution that will benefit property owners and our $11 billion tourism industry.
Mortgage Rates
Decrease to 6.48%
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage decreased to 6.48% this week. With mortgage rates in the mid-6% range and income growth outpacing home price growth, housing affordability is marginally improving.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.48% as of June 4, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 6.53%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.85%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.79%, down from last week when it averaged 5.87%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.99%.
Florida’s vacation rental market remains competitive and profitable, with successful properties standing out, offering sought-after features and following local rules.
One fact is rarely in dispute: They make money for property owners and profit in taxable income both for Florida and for its cities and counties.
In Pinellas County, a guest is not only going to pay the 6% sales tax, but a 6% County Tourist Development tax on top of the rental rate.
In recent years, the rise of short-term rental has sparked debates about their impact on property values. Common misconceptions suggest that these temporary lodgings may negatively affect the overall value of real estate in a given area. However, a closer look reveals a more nuanced reality.
Source: Florida: FLORIDA WEEKLY
My Take:
I have noticed this in some of our local residential markets. Particularly homes and condos with a strong documented income history.
Investors often value vacation rentals based on how much income they can generate. A property earning strong short-term rental income may sell for more than similar homes nearby because buyers see it as an investment opportunity.
Buyers are willing to pay extra for a vacation rental that is already set up and making money. This can include permits, furniture, décor, and active rental listings.
Amenities like pools, hot tubs, fire pits, and game rooms can increase rental income and make the property more valuable, even if regular homebuyers do not value those features as highly.
Mortgage Rates
Stay Flat
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.53% this week. Pending home sales have increased three months in a row, indicating there’s latent demand and homebuyers are ready to jump back into the market if mortgage rates decline.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.53% as of May 28, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.51%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.89%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.87%, up from last week when it averaged 5.85%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.03%.
Florida condo and townhouse sales rose 7% year over year in April, with pending sales up nearly 15%, giving agents new tools to re-engage affordability-focused buyers statewide. Three years ago, new safety regulations enacted after the Surfside condominium collapse disrupted Florida’s condo market. Association fees climbed. Insurance became more difficult and expensive to secure. Mortgage financing grew more complicated. Buyers pulled back, and sales slowed sharply. That adjustment period now appears to be easing, and the numbers are starting to reflect it. According to April housing data, closed condo and townhouse sales in Florida rose about 7% year over year, more than double the increase seen in single-family home sales statewide.
Source: Florida REALTORS
My Take: The stats in our local beach market look even more dramatic. The number of closed condo sales in Madeira Beach, The Redington’s, Indian Shores and Indian Rocks are up just over 60%.
Mortgage Rates
Average 6.51%
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.51% this week. As rates fluctuate, aspiring buyers should remember that by shopping around for the best mortgage rate and getting multiple quotes, they can potentially save thousands.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.51% as of May 21, 2026, up from last week when it averaged 6.36%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.86%.
The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 5.85%, up from last week when it averaged 5.71%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 6.01%.
