Florida Challenges 

Climate-Risk Scores 

That Could Hurt 

Property Values

Florida is taking legal action against First Street Technology, a company that assigns individual properties climate-risk scores for flooding, extreme heat, wildfires, and wind exposure. These ratings appear on popular real estate websites, including Zillow, Redfin, and Realtor.com.

Florida Attorney General James Uthmeier argues that the scores may be inaccurate or misleading and could discourage buyers, potentially hurting property values. The lawsuit, filed October 23, 2026, also raises concerns about the influence these ratings could have on insurance and real estate transactions.

First Street maintains that its ratings provide valuable information to consumers about potential future climate risks. However, critics question the accuracy of some projections and whether a single numerical score adequately reflects the actual characteristics of an individual property.

My Take: There is an important distinction between providing meaningful, property-specific information and assigning a numerical risk score that could negatively influence a buyer’s perception without sufficient context. In our coastal condominium market, buyers are better served by evaluating the actual property and building, including their specific conditions and characteristics, rather than placing too much weight on a generalized, computer-generated risk rating.

Mortgage Rates 

Decline for Third Week

Mortgage rates continued their downward trajectory this week, improving the environment for prospective homebuyers against a backdrop of strong economic growth.

• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.18% as of November 5, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 7.24%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.22%.
• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.57%, down from last week when it averaged 6.60%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.50%.

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If voters approve Florida Amendment 3, the state's homestead exemption for owner-occupied houses will rise from the current $50,000 to $150,000 in 2027. Then, it will rise to $250,000 in 2028. 

Local municipalities and schools took in about $32 billion from property taxes in 2019. However, as Florida property values have risen, collections have as well. Last year, they took in just over $59 billion, an 85% increase.

In Pinellas County

How much will you save on your real estate taxes? 

Your savings will depend on the municipality in which your homestead property is located. The higher the millage rate in your municipality, the more you will save.

Remember, the proposed increase in the homestead exemption does not reduce the school portion of the total millage rate. The school portion of the millage rate in Pinellas County is 6.273 ($6.27 per $1,000). To calculate your savings, reduce the total millage rate for your municipality by the school millage rate of 6.273.

See the chart below for examples

Will Homestead Portability stay in place if Amendment 3 passes?

According to the Pinellas County Property Appraiser, Amendment 3 does not eliminate, replace, or change Florida's existing portability provisions.

This means that if you move to a new primary residence in Florida, you can still transfer the accumulated tax savings (the difference between your home's market value and its capped assessed value) from your previous homestead to your new one, up to the maximum limit. You just have to establish your new residence by January 1 of the third year after you abandon your old homestead.

What about 2^nd Homes and Investment properties?

Vacation homes, rental properties, and investment properties generally do not qualify for the newly proposed $150,000 or $250,000 homestead exemptions. Those increased fixed-dollar exemptions are strictly for a homeowner's primary residence.

However, Amendment 3 reduces the annual assessment cap on non-homestead properties from 10% to 5%. Under current law, the assessed value of these properties can increase by up to 10% each year for non-school tax purposes.

Note: 

Amendment 3 applies to existing owners as of December 31, 2026. For buyers who purchase January 1st 2027 or later, the existing $50,000 exemption will apply 

tied to inflation. New owners must complete 5 full years of residency/homestead exemption before stepping up to the full expanded exemption tier ($250,000).

My Take: An increase in the homestead exemption and the resulting reduction of Real Estate taxes could give yet another reason for existing owners not to sell, unless they take advantage of Homestead Portability. Low rates on existing mortgage loans, looming capital gains tax and the increase in interest rates have already created the “lock in effect” for many homeowners.

Mortgage Rates 

Decline Further to 7.24%

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined this week, offering some relief to prospective homebuyers.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.32% as of October 22, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 7.40%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.19%.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.68%, down from last week when it averaged 6.71%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.44%.

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Contract signings to purchase homes fell in September to the lowest level on record, as buyers fled the housing market in the wake of the average 30-year mortgage rate climbing above 7%. Pending-home sales, which refer to home transactions under contract but have not yet closed, fell in September to their lowest level since 2001, when the National Association of Realtors began tracking the figure. The data suggests that home-buying demand has fizzled out. Pending home sales fell 7.3% in September from the previous month. They were also down 11.3% from the same month last year.

Source: NAR

My Take: The first two months of 2026 was encouraging. There was every indication we were on our way to a balanced market. Think 2019. So many forces have come in to play since the pandemic; war, oil prices, interest rates to name a few. States that experienced a Pandemic Boom ( Florida, Texas, Arizona ) are faced with the biggest corrections.

Mortgage Rates 

Decrease to 7.32%

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage declined this week, offering some relief to prospective homebuyers.

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.32% as of October 22, 2026, down from last week when it averaged 7.40%. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.19%.

The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.68%, down from last week when it averaged 6.71%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.44%.

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Single-family home price gains in Pinellas County have
significantly outpaced the 29.5% national inflation rate since March 2020.
While the county has lost a portion of its pandemic-era peak, its remaining
home price gains still sit comfortably above the inflation baseline.

Condos have given back far more. In 33 of the 35 major Florida counties, condo prices have blown off some of their boom gains, and in 12 counties, more than half of those gains are gone.

Condo prices in Pinellas County initially surged past 60% during the pandemic housing boom, a significant portion of those gains has since been erased. The remaining price appreciation now sits well under 25%, meaning condo values in the county have ultimately fallen below the 29.5% national inflation baseline since March 2020.

Source: ResiClub/Zillow

Gulf Front condos in Pinellas tell a different story with a net gain of 50% since March of 2020.

My Take: Gulf Front condos thrive on scarcity. Gulf Front land in Pinellas is limited and irreplaceable, currently selling for over $60,000 a lineal front foot. Existing owners have a lot of equity and 70% of Gulf Front condo sales are cash buyers. Remote work and retirement trends continue to drive demand for Gulf Front Real Estate.

Mortgage Rates 

Average 7.4%

The average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage remained unchanged this week.

• The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 7.40% as of October 15, 2026, unchanged from last week. A year ago at this time, the 30-year FRM averaged 6.27%.
• The 15-year fixed-rate mortgage averaged 6.71%, down from last week when it averaged 6.73%. A year ago at this time, the 15-year FRM averaged 5.52%.

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