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Home Price Appreciation 2024-11-14

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

November 14th, 2024 

Home Price 

Appreciation 

Slows Down 

In 2024

Year-over-year shift (i.e., 12-month shift) in national home prices

 

Case-Shiller —> +4.3% (decelerated from +6.2% in January 2024)

 

FHFA —> +4.2% (decelerated from +6.7% in January 2024)

 

Freddie Mac —> +3.6% (decelerated from +6.7% in January 2024)

 

Zillow —> +2.4% (decelerated from +3.6% in January 2024)

 

In 2024, Sun Belt housing markets, in particular, have begun to soften again. Strained housing affordability and slowed migration have suppressed housing demand. That reduced housing demand, combined with competition from homebuilders—who, where and when needed, are using affordability adjustments like buydowns to maintain sales—has caused active inventory in the resale market to rise year-over-year, especially in Sun Belt markets.

 

According to Zillow: Home prices are up 2.6% from the peak in 2022 and up 44.6% since March of 2020

Source: ResiClub

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Following Elections 

Results and a Fed Rate Cut, 

Mortgage Rates Stall

After a six-week climb, rates have leveled off, but overall affordability continues to be an issue for potential homebuyers. Freddie Mac’s latest research shows that mortgage payments compared to rents on the same homes are elevated relative to most of the last three decades.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

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Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker


13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

© 2024 Doiron Realty, Inc.

Posted in: Newsletters

International Buyers 2024-11-07

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

November 7th, 2024 

International Buyers 

Facing More 

Competition 

International purchases of Florida residential properties between August 2023 and July 2024 declined 44% compared to the prior 12-month period, in terms of sales counts. International buyers in Florida also face an unusually high level of competition from domestic out-of-state buyers in a high price, high-interest rate environment. Dollar volume of international in 2024 was 54% less than the recent high-water mark of $15.3 billion in 2022.

 

Florida’s top 5 buyer countries by sales:

 

  • Canada (17% of international buyers)
  • Argentina (10%)
  • Colombia (7%)
  • Brazil (6%)
  • United Kingdom (5%) 

Source: Florida Realtors

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Mortgage Rates

Continue to Climb

Mortgage rates continued to inch up this week, reaching 6.79 percent. It is clear purchase demand is very sensitive to mortgage rates in the current market environment. As soon as rates began to rise in early October, purchase applications fell and over the last month have declined 10 percent.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

­


Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker


13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

© 2024 Doiron Realty, Inc.

Posted in: Newsletters

Condo deadline 2024-11-01

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

November 1st, 2024 

Florida Condo Associations

Push to Extend Deadline

Condo associations want to see the deadline extended and an interest-free loan program set up to help condo owners pay for the repairs.

On the Treasure Coast, 14 condo associations have formed an alliance to press for changes in the new safety inspection law. The group regularly meets to share ideas.

“They are pricing us out of our homes,” Mark Shea told WPTV news. He is the president of the Robles del Mar association in Indian River Shores. His community has many seniors living on fixed incomes who cannot afford the special assessments.

DeSantis agrees that a special session is needed but hesitates to call one until the Legislature has a good idea of what it wants to do.

“Let’s make sure they’re able to stay in their home,” said DeSantis during an appearance in September at the Roberto Alonso Community Center in Miami Lakes. “I don’t think this is something that you can just put off until next March or April.”

Source: Gainesville Sun

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Mortgage Rates 

Increase For The

Fifth Consecutve Week

Increasing for the fifth consecutive week, mortgage rates reached their highest level since the beginning of August. With several potential inflection points happening over the next week, including the jobs report, the 2024 election, and the Federal Reserve interest rate decision, we can expect mortgage rates to remain volatile. Although uncertainty will remain, it does appear mortgage rates are cresting, and are not expected to reach the highs seen earlier this year.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

­


Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker


13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

© 2023 Doiron Realty, Inc.

Posted in: Newsletters

Hurricane Season’s 2024-10-25

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

October 25th, 2024 

The 2024 

Hurricane Season’s 

Effect on the Market

A recent John Burns Research and Consulting newsletter published after Hurricane Helene, but before Hurricane Milton highlighted the following points as they pertain to the Tampa Bay market:

 

Temporary rental demand: Expected to rise as homeowners undertake repairs. “The increased apartment demand will help Florida and the Southeast absorb much of the new supply that entered the market over the past 2 years.”

 

Inland migration: It rose amid demand for new housing after Hurricane Ian, “and we expect the same will occur now.” “However, inland migration was already happening in Tampa as residents sought more affordable housing,” she added. “Over the last 12 months, Lakeland was the top in-migration destination from the Tampa MSA (Metropolitan Statistical Area).”

 

Insurance rates: They were originally expected by observers to decline as a result of what had been a “relatively mild hurricane season.” That, in turn, “could have spurred home buying and new construction.” Not now. “Hurricane Helene has made it unlikely that insurance rates will fall in Florida in 2025.”

 

Source: John Burns Research

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Mortgage Rates 

Increase

Once Again

The continued strength in the economy drove mortgage rates higher once again this week. Over the last few years, there has been a tension between downbeat economic narrative and incoming economic data. 

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

­


Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker


13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

© 2023 Doiron Realty, Inc.

Posted in: Newsletters

Will hurricanes 2024-10-18

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

October 18th, 2024 

Will Hurricanes Reshape 

Tampa Bay’s 

Housing Market?

Home prices tend to go up and wealthier buyers move in after hurricanes.

Tampa Bay’s most devastating hurricane in a century, Helene decimated entire neighborhoods from Crystal River to Clearwater. Storied local haunts and family homes passed down through generations were wiped out in one fell swoop, leaving a blank canvas for possible redevelopment.

Longtime residents are forced to move. Charming old buildings are replaced by sturdier, more modern structures. Once-affordable neighborhoods see costs skyrocket, pricing out longtime residents.

The frenzy of rebuilding after disasters can prompt transformative community change — including shifts to home values, rent prices and resident population.

In a study published last year in the Journal of Environmental Economics and Management, researchers analyzed 16 years of property data across various Florida markets. They found that after a hurricane hits, home prices temporarily rise and wealthier buyers move in.

The Tampa Bay Times analyzed property data in four counties that bore the brunt of Ian’s impact in 2022. In the year after Hurricane Ian, Lee County homes sold in areas with the highest rates of flood insurance claims saw prices roughly 9% higher than those sold in places with less damage.

At the same time, home values in the hardest-hit places around Fort Myers Beach, Sanibel Island and Cape Coral dropped, the Times found.

 

Source: Tampa Bay Times 

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Mortgage Rates 

Continue 

to Increase

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage increased for the third consecutive week, moving closer to 6.5%. In general, higher rates reflect the strength in the economy that is supportive of the housing market. But notably, as compared to a year ago, rates are more than one percentage point lower and potential homebuyers can stand to benefit, especially by shopping around for the best quote as rates can vary widely between mortgage lenders.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

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Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

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Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker


13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

© 2023 Doiron Realty, Inc.

Posted in: Newsletters

Helen’s fallout 2024-10-03

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

October 3rd, 2024 

Pockets of the 

U.S. Southeast reeling 

after Hurricane Helene

The Category 4 storm that made landfall on Thursday. Rescue crews are working tirelessly, especially in the hardest-hit areas of western North Carolina.

 

As of 9 p.m. Eastern Time October 2nd over 1 million Americans were still without power.

 

• S. Carolina: 403,000

• N. Carolina: 303,000

• Georgia: 295,000

• Florida: 27,000

• Virginia: 25,000

• West Virginia: 6,300

 

The hurricane’s aftermath could further soften some regional pockets of the Southeast. If Helene’s fallout leads to a wave of damaged resale homes hitting the market, shocks to home insurance rates, and a slowdown in regional migration, it could put downward pressure on local home prices.

 

The vulnerability to a local hurricane-induced home price correction is greater now than in the past, given how much housing affordability has been stretched over the last four years.

 

Historically speaking, post-hurricane recovery efforts also often lead to a surge in construction activity as damaged homes are repaired or rebuilt. This can temporarily boost demand for subcontractor labor.

Source: ResiClub 

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Along Gulf Boulevard and side streets were piles and piles of appliances, couches, mattresses stacked five high, the drywall and wood-plank guts of buildings

It cannot be overstated how much sand there is, swept into plumes of grainy mist, dumped onto the beach by front loaders and piled in parking lots.

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Mortgage Rates 

Tick Up

 

The decline in mortgage rates has stalled due to a mix of escalating geopolitical tensions and a rebound in short-term rates that indicate the market’s enthusiasm on rate cuts was premature. Zooming out to the bigger picture, mortgage rates have declined one and a half percentage points over the last 12 months, home price growth is slowing, inventory is increasing, and incomes continue to rise. As a result, the backdrop for homebuyers this fall is improving and should continue through the rest of the year.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

­


Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker


13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

© 2023 Doiron Realty, Inc.

Posted in: Newsletters

DeSantis addresses 2024-09-26

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

September 26th, 2024 

Governor DeSantis 

Addresses Condo 

Safety Issues

Governor DeSantis met with government officials, condo owners and property managers last week in Pinellas County. The purpose of the meeting was to gather ideas about how to deal with the year-end deadlines related to SB 4-D issues. 

 

DeSantis promised legislative reforms by the end of the year and would call a special session with the Florida legislature if necessary. 

 

Some of the ideas put forward include:

 

  • Separating critical safety structural repairs that need immediate attention from preventive repairs that should be done.
  • Government supported zero interest loans to condo associations and or individual unit owners to fund assessments. 
  • Focus on making unit owners aware of all structural and nominal repair issues in the spirit of full transparency.
  •  Allowing owners and management more discretion in scheduling of non-critical repairs.

 

The goal is to strike a balance between required safety measures and imposing financial burdens on associations unit owners. 

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The 30-Year 

Fixed-Rate Mortgage 

Reaches Lowest Level 

in Two Years

 

Although this week’s decline was slight, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage trended down to its lowest level in two years. Given the downward trajectory of rates, refinance activity continues to pick up, creating opportunities for many homeowners to trim their monthly mortgage payment. Meanwhile, many looking to purchase a home are playing the waiting game to see if rates decrease further as additional economic data is released over the next several weeks.

Hurricane Helene

Expected to make landfall on Florida’s Big Bend this evening as at least a Category 3 hurricane, bringing the risk of devastating damage. The storm was 195 miles southwest of Tampa as of 2 p.m. ET, traveling northeast at 16 mph.

Low Tide at Johns Pass today is 3:20 pm. That’s good timing for Pinellas Beaches.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

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Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

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Income Properties

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Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker


13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

© 2023 Doiron Realty, Inc.

Posted in: Newsletters

Florida #1 2025-07-24

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

July 18th, 2025

 

Florida Still #1 For 

International Buyers

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Florida continues to dominate the international real estate landscape, according to a new report from the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR). The report shows foreign buyer activity rebounding nationwide, and once again, Florida leads the pack.

From April 2024 to March 2025, international buyers invested $56 billion in U.S. residential real estate, representing a 33% year-over-year increase. Florida captured 21% of that activity, maintaining its streak of more than 15 years as the top destination for global homebuyers.

That said, it’s essential to keep the numbers in perspective. International transactions account for only about 3% of the state’s overall real estate market. Florida’s market is highly diverse, offering a wide range of options for both domestic and international buyers.

The Sunshine State’s appeal goes far beyond beaches and palm trees. Buyers are drawn to Florida’s strong economy, its absence of state income tax, and its access to global markets. In Florida, 67% of international buyers are paying all cash for vacation homes, rental properties and permanent residences.

Source: NAR

The 30-Year Mortgage 

Shows Little Movement

This week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage essentially remained flat at 6.74%. Overall, the backdrop for the housing market is positive as the economy continues to perform well with solid employment and income growth.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

­


Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

727-391-2829

© 2025 Doiron Realty, Inc.

18395 Gulf Boulevard Suite 203

Indian Shores, FL 33785

Posted in: Newsletters

PInellas County to spend 2025-07-18

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

July 18th, 2025

Pinellas County 

To Spend $126 Million 

To Widen, Elevate 

Badly Eroded Beaches

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The project is expected to start in September. Unlike past re-nourishment projects, the federal government will not foot the majority of the bill.

Pinellas county’s beaches are considered extremely eroded after recent storms like Hurricanes Helene and Idalia. In the past, the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers paid most of the money to help the county re-nourish its beaches by widening them and rebuilding sand dunes. However, that help has been on hold because of a controversial rule.

 

The federal government will no longer help fund the work unless 100% of beachfront owners grant the federal government perpetual public access to their properties.

 

Because many Pinellas County property owners refuse to grant the easement, the stalemate continues to this day. Pinellas County has approved a plan to use almost $126 million in tourism development tax funds to re-nourish miles of county beaches.

The project is expected to commence in September and conclude by January 2026. 

Source: WFTS abc news

 Mortgage Rates

Continue to Move Up

The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage inched up this week and continues to stay within a narrow range under 7%. While overall affordability headwinds persist, rate stability coupled with moderately rising inventory may sway prospective buyers to act.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

­


Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

727-391-2829

© 2025 Doiron Realty, Inc.

18395 Gulf Boulevard Suite 203

Indian Shores, FL 33785

Posted in: Newsletters

One Year Change 2025-07-11

Gulf Coast Market Update

Gulf Coast
Real Estate Update

July 10th, 2025

Florida 

Residential Property 

For Sale

Up 28%

Florida Up 28% since June 2024

When assessing home price momentum, it’s important to monitor active listings and months of supply. If active listings start to rapidly increase as homes remain on the market for longer periods, it may indicate pricing softness or weakness. Conversely, a rapid decline in active listings could suggest a market that is heating up.

Generally speaking, local housing markets where active inventory has jumped above pre-pandemic 2019 levels. 

Source: Florida ResiClub

Year Over Year Change

Florida

Inventory in June 2017: 136,241

Inventory in June 2018: 134,336

Inventory in June 2019: 139,464

Inventory in June 2020: 114,937

Inventory in June 2021: 47,829

Inventory in June 2022: 58,237

Inventory in June 2023: 81,676

Inventory in June 2024: 140,080

Inventory in June 2025: 178,636

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 Mortgage Rates

Tick Up

After declining for five consecutive weeks, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage moved slightly higher following a stronger than expected jobs report. Despite ongoing affordability challenges in the housing market, home purchase and refinance applications are responding to the downward trajectory in rates, increasing by 25% and 56%, respectively, compared to the same time last year.

For Sale

Condos on the Gulf

Condos on the Bay

Waterfront Homes

Belleair Homes

Seminole Homes

Income Properties

­


Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

727-391-2829

© 2025 Doiron Realty, Inc.

18395 Gulf Boulevard Suite 203

Indian Shores, FL 33785

Posted in: Newsletters

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Doiron Realty Services
727-391-2829
broker@doironrealty.com
18395 Gulf Boulevard Suite 203
Indian Shores, FL 33785
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