A top Florida tourism official called the future of travel to the state “bright” and said there are no plans to slow marketing efforts, even with the rapid spread of the omicron variant of the coronavirus. 

Last month, a panel of state economists slightly lowered expectations through the middle of 2022 for Canadian and overseas travelers, anticipating the omicron variant would slow, at least temporarily, Florida’s resurging tourism.

Florida’s tourism industry exceeded expectations in the third quarter of 2021, drawing 32.6 million visitors, which was 2 million more than forecast earlier this year and 0.3% above the overall number of visitors in the third quarter of 2019 – before the pandemic began. The 2021 third-quarter totals followed 31.7 million visitors in the second quarter, which was 2.2% below the second quarter of 2019.
Almost 90% of visitors in 2021 had come from other states, though Visit Florida officials expected a resurgence in Canadian and overseas visitors after the White House eased travel restrictions in November.

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

Recently home values just posted their second consecutive month of decelerating price growth. That said, there’s a growing consensus among industry insiders that the deceleration in home price growth is just getting started. And that price growth slowdown has the potential to be even more substantial if an inflation-concerned Federal Reserve pushes interest rates up.

Why is home price growth likely to continue decelerating in 2022? Some of it is simply a housing market returning to normal after a pandemic-spurred boom sent home price growth to unsustainable levels. Record-low mortgage rates are expected to rise, while looming return-to-office plans have cut down on some second-home purchases. But price growth deceleration doesn’t mean the housing market is weakening. In fact, even at a much lower rate of home price growth, it could still be a buyer’s nightmare. The mismatch between supply, with inventory still floating around a 40-year low, and demand, driven by the influx of first-time millennial homebuyers, is poised to keep this a seller’s market through 2022.

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

• The unemployment rate shot up to the highest level since the Great Depression.
• 7.2 million homeowners went into emergency forbearance
• States went in to Lock Downs

So, a housing slump made a lot of sense. But 2021 was one of the hottest housing markets in US history. The big question now is what comes next because prices can’t continue to grow at this rate forever. There’s a consensus that growth will slow next year, but there’s not a consensus of what it will look like. Predictions range from a drop of 2.5% to an increase of 16%.

There’s a huge unknown in the housing market right now; mortgage rates. Inflation is rising faster than expected and it looks like it’s going to be stubborn. That means the Federal Reserve is more likely to rase rates sooner than was expected. Also, the Central Bank has said it will accelerate the reduction of buying mortgage related bonds. But demographic factors are pushing the market forward. We are in the period where millennials born 1983 to 1989 are well in to the important first-time home buying years. Also “work from home” seems like it’s here to stay. So according to most of the experts; home prices are still going to rise. But if they don’t it won’t be the first time they”ve been wrong.

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

With forbearance ending across the country, foreclosures are up 68% in the 3rd quarter of this year from the 3rd quarter of last year. But when you compare them to the Pre-Covid levels of foreclosure in the third quarter of 2019 foreclosure activity is actually down 60%. Bottom line; even with sharp increases in foreclosures in quarter 4, we’ll end the year significantly below what we’d see in a normal housing market.

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

In September and October, REALTOR.COM surveyed 1,300 consumers about their homeownership status, and found that 26% of homeowners surveyed plan to sell their home in the next 12 months. Younger generations seem to be more eager to sell as 34% of Gen Z homeowners and 49% of millennial homeowners plan to sell, while only 26% of Gen X homeowners, 11% of Baby Boomers, and 8% of the Silent Generation plan to do the same. Interestingly, 29% of Gen Z homeowners and 54% of millennial homeowners have also sold a home in the last 6 months, compared to 22% of all homeowners, and only 4% of Baby Boomers and 3% of the Silent Generation homeowners. Selling is more popular in urban areas, with almost half (46%) of urban homeowners planning to sell while only 19% of suburban and 11% of rural homeowners plan the same.

Despite the re-acceleration of economic growth, the recent bond rally drove mortgage rates down for the second consecutive week. These low mortgage rates, combined with the tailwind of first-time homebuyers entering the market, means that purchase demand will remain strong into next year. However, affordability pressures continue to be an ongoing concern for homebuyers.

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

While mortgage rates fell after several weeks on the rise, we expect future upticks due to stronger economic data and as the Federal Reserve pulls back on its stimulus. That said, the housing market remains favorable for consumers, as rates remain below pre-pandemic levels and continue to support sustainable purchase and refinance opportunities.

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

Rising mortgage rates continue to rattle the U.S. housing market. With homebuyer demand quickly slowing, price appreciation has followed suit in many metro areas.

Nevertheless, differences still exist by geography, with affordable areas in South and Southeast continuing to thrive as out-migration from more expensive markets persists.

After six straight months of Tampa, Florida leading the nation for appreciation, Miami posted the strongest annual home price growth among the 20 tracked markets, surging by 28.6% in August, down from July’s non-seasonally adjusted rate of 31.8%. Tampa now ranks second, recording a 28% year-over-year gain in August, down from 31.7% in July.

Compared with annual gains recorded last August, only Miami and Tampa continued to see stronger increases, up by 4.7 and 2 percentage points, respectively.

 Source: Core Logic

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

Homeowners with low mortgage rates are balking at the prospect of selling their homes to borrow at much higher rates for their next homes, a development that could limit the supply of houses for sale for years to come. Sellers who don’t need to sell are staying on the sidelines, economists say.

Some homeowners will always need to sell due to job relocations, divorces, deaths or other life events. Yet if those who have the option not to move decide to stay put, that could keep the inventory of homes for sale below normal levels and keep home prices elevated, even if demand remains low.

As of July 31, nearly nine of every 10 first-lien mortgages had an interest rate below 5% and more than two-thirds had a rate below 4%, according to mortgage-data firm Black Knight Inc. About 83% of those mortgages are 30-year fixed rates, Black Knight said.

 Source: Wallstreet Journal

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829

Scores of Floridians are getting a crash course on the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s (FEMA) 50% rule governing rebuilding homes after Hurricane Ian. And for many, the FEMA rule is an unpleasant, problematic surprise after all of Ian’s damage and traumas.
The 50% rule dictates the future of hurricane damaged homes in designated flood zones.
The federal rule prohibits repairs and improvements on damaged homes exceeding 50% of their market value unless the entire residential structure is brought up to the most current building codes and flood regulations.
Basically, if the repairs to a home damaged by Ian are greater than 50% of its value (not including land value), homeowners are compelled to rebuild at current codes and elevation requirements in coastal and other flood zone areas.
Rebuilding could entail more complete tear downs and new construction of elevated and more expensive homes built to current codes and flood rules rather than repairs of existing older homes.

 Source: Florida Realtors Association

Doiron Realty Services
Pete Doiron
Broker

13800 Park Blvd. Suite 207
Seminole FL 33776
727-391-2829