Typically there is a seasonal drop in September and November in a non election year of -9.8%. In an election year it’s –15%. People generally have a wait and see attitude. So it generally delays sales rather than eliminate them.
Source: HUD NAR BTIG
Note: The number of homes sold in 2023 was 4.09 million. That is less than the number of homes sold in the financial crisis in 2008. NAR predicts the number of homes sold in 2024 will be 4.7 million.
2008 was the only year prices dropped after the election.
Financial experts expect a quarter point drop in the Fed Funds rate by the end of this year. This could bring some relief on mortgage rates.
The 30-year fixed-rate mortgage fell to its lowest level since mid-March, dropping 12 basis points from last week. Mortgage rates are headed in the right direction and the economy remains resilient, two positive incremental signs for the housing market. However, homebuyers have yet to respond to lower rates, as purchase application demand is still roughly 5 percent below Spring, when rates were approximately the same. This is not uncommon: sometimes as rates decline, demand weakens, and the apparent paradox is driven by buyers making sure rates don’t decline further before they decide to purchase.
